645MixUpProbability

=Probability of Ellie Foster pregnant from one or more eggs of Remuses=

Briefing to the Board of IVF Inc.
Peter Taylor (pjt), 24 Feb. '03

• exact number of Foster eggs inserted is unknown, but “several” is most likely to be 3 or 4 • probability of inserted egg implanting = 0.3 • this is independent of total #s inserted or of egg source • if Ellie Foster is pregnant with one or more eggs, couples will want to know the probability of one or more of these being from the Remuses
 * Assumptions**


 * total # of fetuses gestating in Ellie Foster = 	|| 1	|| 2	|| 3	|| 4	|| 5||
 * # Remus fetuses (below)	||
 * 0	|| 0.49	|| 0.22	|| 0.09	|| 0.03	|| 0.01||
 * 1	|| 0.51	|| 0.58	|| 0.46 || 	0.30	|| 0.16||
 * 2	|| 	|| 0.20	|| 0.40	|| 0.52	|| 0.53||
 * 3	|| || 	|| 0.05	|| 0.15	|| 0.30||

This chart is produced by a spreadsheet available on disk. The first two assumptions can be varied to see the resulting probabilities.